For the first time in decades, global business is operating under conditions it did not prepare for. Political forces now shape markets as much as economic ones, and the rules that once guided international business no longer hold.
To understand this moment, we need to remember how exceptional the previous era truly was. For roughly 25 to 30 years, globalization moved in one direction. Markets opened, supply chains stretched, capital flowed, inflation softened, and technology spread rapidly across borders.
Leaders came to assume that access to suppliers, customers, and talent was a certainty. They built organizations on the expectation that the world would continue integrating, and that the economic logic of efficiency would override political considerations.
This era has ended, replaced by a fundamentally different environment defined by relentless geopolitical instability and economic volatility.
Trade barriers, tariffs, and industrial policy have become permanent features of the landscape. The US increasingly uses tariffs as instruments of foreign policy – tools for managing strategic competition, influencing migration, signaling security priorities, or shaping bilateral negotiations. Measures that once felt extraordinary have become routine.
At the same time, the great power rivalry between the US and China is redrawing the boundaries of economic and technological cooperation. Global supply chains remain deeply interconnected, but political alignment has fractured.
Technology is diverging into parallel ecosystems. Interdependence, once a source of stability, is now something states openly weaponize. And despite widespread talk of diversification, the world is not decoupling from China. Its share of global exports continues to rise.
For businesses, this is not a temporary phase but a permanent feature of the operating environment. Volatility is now embedded in the system.
Companies built for efficiency must now redesign themselves for resilience.
“In this world, waiting for clarity is not a strategy.”
For business leaders, the implications are profound. Economic decisions can no longer be separated from geopolitical intent. The mental model that shaped leadership thinking for the past 30 years – where “first we optimize, then we check the political risk” – has inverted. This shift is reflected ina recent global study of more than 1200 CEOs conducted by Egon Zehnder, which found that 97% of respondents see opportunities to contribute to global prosperity in the future – whether within their organizations or beyond.
The question leaders must now ask is simple: given today’s geopolitical realities, what remains possible?
Security, resilience, and control have overtaken efficiency as the organizing principles of global strategy. The model of predictable globalization, in which companies could operate across borders with minimal friction, has given way to competing power centers, tighter constraints, and a far more contested environment.
In this world, waiting for clarity is not a strategy. The organizations and leaders that will thrive are those that can adapt rapidly, interpret political signals as readily as economic ones, and build the resilience to navigate a system where the old assumptions no longer hold.
The executives who thrived in the last generation were those who could plan, execute, and optimize.
If the operating environment has fundamentally changed, then leadership must change with it. The instincts that served executives well in an age of stability and efficiency are not the ones that will carry them through a world defined by fragmentation, political risk, and constant ambiguity.
So, what does effective leadership look like in this environment?
The executives who thrived in the last generation were those who could plan, execute, and optimize. They built their careers on pattern recognition: applying what worked before at scale. Experience was an asset. Certainty was the goal. Control was the method. That playbook no longer works. Today’s environment rewards a different set of capabilities:
These are not abstract qualities. They show up in how leaders make decisions, how they communicate under pressure, how they allocate resources, and how they respond when plans fall apart. The differentiator in this environment is no longer strategy alone. It is leadership capability.
Resilience is about learning from shocks, reorganizing around them, and emerging stronger.
In this environment, leadership is not simply about navigating complexity. It is about creating coherence, helping people orient themselves when the external world refuses to stand still. But coherence alone is not enough. The world ahead will separate those who can make sense of volatility from those who are paralyzed by it.
The leaders who succeed will be those who understand that the assumptions shaping the last generation of business success – open markets, geopolitical stability, predictable rules – have been replaced by a far more contested environment. Strategy now requires reading political forces with the same fluency as market forces. Waiting for the fog to clear is not an option.
Resilience is about learning from shocks, reorganizing around them, and emerging stronger. Companies that cling to optimization will be exposed. Those who cultivate adaptive talent, flexible structures, and distributed leadership will turn volatility into advantage.
Resilient organizations rely on teams that can operate autonomously and collaborate across functions, not on a single center of authority. They will anchor their people in purpose. In periods of transition, meaning steadies organizations. The leaders who succeed are those who can articulate not just where the organization is going, but why it matters – and whose behavior reinforces that purpose.
The opportunity for those willing to lead differently is significant. This moment demands leaders who can pair strategic sharpness with emotional intelligence, see the system as it is, and mobilize their teams despite uncertainty.
The organizations that recognize this early will be the ones that shape the next era of global business. In a fractured world, leadership is the advantage.
Increasing longevity is forcing a rethink of public policy, individual lifestyles, and private finances. Yet it is crucial not to overreact or grow unduly alarmed about shifting population dynamics....
Audio available
The strategies that drove the recent luxury boom are now its constraint. As demand polarizes and competition intensifies, growth must be constructed, not expected....
You need feedback to fuel leadership growth, but it can feel hard and awkward to receive. Here are four essential tips to turn input into opportunities to learn and grow, without getting...
What does it take to lead a global enterprise today? Six CEOs outline the behaviors that have helped them excel in their roles, from disciplined delegation and elevating perspective to mastering self-reflection...
Explore first person business intelligence from top minds curated for a global executive audience