What will 2024 bring for you and your business? IMD faculty and other experts offer their predictions for the year ahead.
Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, has embraced an unconventional writing style – opting for all lowercase letters. This seemingly odd approach serves a dual purpose: to infuse a human touch into his communication and to distinguish his authentic voice from the sophisticated AI chatbots developed by OpenAI and others, such as ChatGPT.
In an era dominated by artificial intelligence, Altman’s writing style serves as a reassurance that the content is genuinely authored by a human. The year ahead is poised to bring about a shift in the way we perceive reality as the specter of “deepfakes” looms large on the horizon. This is among the key AI trends for 2024, as picked by IMD’s professors and expert contributors. From the potential of real-time translation to the end of prompts, the coming year could reshape not only the way we perceive reality but also communicate, learn, and work globally.
Michael Wade, Professor of Innovation and Strategy at IMD and Director of IMD’s Global Center for Digital Business Transformation
The ubiquity of deepfake technology is poised to reach new heights in 2024, permeating various facets of society and challenging the very notion of truth. As the saying goes, “seeing is no longer believing,” and this phenomenon will have far-reaching ramifications in politics, corporate governance, and information security.
In the political arena, the upcoming US presidential election in 2024 presents fertile ground for the manipulation of public opinion through deepfakes. The technology’s sophistication continues to grow, blurring the lines between genuine content and manipulated falsehoods. This potential erosion of trust in the authenticity of political figures raises serious concerns about the integrity of the democratic process.
The corporate world is not immune, as executives may fall victim to malicious actors using deepfakes for reputation tarnishing, misinformation, extortion, or blackmail. To combat this, they are urged to exercise caution, with some digital leaders like OpenAI’s Altman adopting unique online writing styles to authenticate their communications.
Amit Joshi, Professor of AI, Analytics and Marketing Strategy at IMD
The trajectory of conversational AI hints at a future where explicit prompts may become obsolete. Despite the remarkable capabilities of the current technology, a major constraint lies in the dependence on humans to initiate conversations. Another limitation is that individuals engage with the technology individually, creating a siloed experience.
Looking ahead to 2024 and beyond, it’s likely that startups will emerge to tackle these constraints. Already, there are signs of progress. Technology is evolving towards self-prompting capabilities, deciphering user needs almost intuitively. Despite current limitations, startups are already making strides in automatic prompt generation, minimizing the burden on users and paving the way for a more seamless and user-friendly experience.
Howard Yu, LEGO® Professor of Management and Innovation at IMD and Director of IMD’s Center for Future Readiness
In the pharmaceutical industry’s quest for personalized medicine, recent studies highlight the limited gains of expensive cancer drugs. However, 2024 marks a turning point, with drugs like Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic, which not only addresses type 2 diabetes but also excels in weight management.
“The era of disease prevention may finally arrive.”- Howard Yu
This shift to preventive medicine signals a newfound profitability for pharmaceutical companies in 2024. Unlike traditional diagnostics and preventive measures, disease prevention has proven to be both lucrative and scalable. This trend challenges the status quo in healthcare, paving the way for a future where doctors prioritize proactive testing and preventive measures over reactive treatments.
Generative AI is transformative in this context, for it facilitates rapid analysis of complex data sets, enabling precise drug discovery and development. All these are crucial enablers for personalized medicine. The era of disease prevention may finally arrive.
Simon J Evenett, Professor of International Trade and Economic Development at the University of St. Gallen, Johannes Fritz, CEO of the St.Gallen Endowment, and Tommaso Giardini, Associate Director of Digital Policy Alert
In the realm of digital policy, 2024 is set to witness significant shifts, mirroring the impact of the EU GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation) in 2018. Three key developments are anticipated, covering AI regulations, digital platform rules, and digital taxation.
First, AI regulation will transition from proposals to adoption, with major actors following the European lead. This shift will necessitate strategic adjustments by multinational corporations in their AI integration and market strategies, influenced by specific regulatory designs, such as risk-based frameworks, technology-specific regulations, and AI liability regimes.
Second, the beginning enforcement of digital platform regulations, focusing on competition and online content, will significantly impact digital businesses’ market entry strategies and operations, potentially affecting traditional businesses as well.
Lastly, the outlook on digital taxation will be heavily influenced by decisions at the WTO and within the OECD/G20 framework, requiring multinational corporations to stay vigilant for shifts in global taxation and digital tariff regimes.
Goutam Challagalla, Professor of Strategy and Marketing at IMD
Amid the hype surrounding GenAI, a surge in investments is expected in 2024. However, most large firms, aside from tech groups, are making cautious investments. Scaling GenAI will be easy for simple routine tasks – e.g., routine legal contracts, but it is proving to be more challenging than expected for more complex tasks, due to data capability limitations. Firms that have invested in traditional AI will find it easier to make the leap, but embracing GenAI requires a holistic commitment of time, effort, and money to reshape work processes.
Adding complexity, the tightening regulatory landscape will require businesses to navigate not only technical challenges but also evolving compliance requirements. As regulatory landscapes toughen, firms must weigh their willingness to stay the course against the promise of future productivity gains. And most digital processes provide gains only when they operate at scale. Until then, they are a money drain.
Sarah Toms, Chief Learning Innovation Officer at IMD
Generative AI’s impact extends beyond technology, shaping how we learn, work, and innovate. In 2024, these intelligent systems will further personalize learning experiences, optimizing knowledge acquisition for individuals. In the workforce, GenAI will continue to automate routine tasks and contribute to higher-order functions like coding and research, redefining productivity.
Efforts to address biases in GenAI systems, already underway, will accelerate, ensuring fair decision-making. Major enterprises integrating GenAI will gain a competitive edge, reshaping the business landscape, and regulatory frameworks, particularly in the EU, should adapt to balance risk aversion with promoting innovation. Adapting to biases, market dynamics, and evolving regulations is crucial to unlock GenAI’s full potential.
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