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Stay or go? The career dilemma at year’s end
With hiring slowing and workers wary of losing pay or flexibility, many people are weighing whether to move jobs or hold steady. Two IMD experts debate the risks and rewards of quitting in a cooling labor market.
Is now a good time to quit your job?
As the year ends and labor markets cool, that question is weighing on many people’s minds. Hiring and job changes have slowed sharply as volatility in trade and the spread of artificial intelligence make both employers and employees more cautious.
Companies are holding on to staff but scaling back recruitment, while many workers hesitate to move for fear of losing pay, flexibility, or security.
Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell described this as a “low-hire, low-fire” cycle: employment remains high, but mobility has stalled.
Recruiters say candidates are increasingly reluctant to leave roles that offer hybrid work or stable benefits. And while few people are being laid off – barring some large redundancies at a few major corporations – companies are slowing their hiring.
Below, José Caballero argues you should stay put. He says stability has become an advantage in a slowing economy.
Silke Mischke contends that even in uncertain times, a deliberate job move can be a positive step towards personal and professional growth.
Why holding on to your job makes sense today
By José Caballero, Senior Economist, IMD World Competitiveness Center
The conventional wisdom that “the best time to find a job is while you have one” deserves reconsideration. Global labor markets are decelerating as the growth momentum of recent years fades.
Job creation has slowed across most advanced economies, reflecting weaker growth prospects and persistent cost pressures. In the US, job openings have declined steadily since mid-2024, a sign the world’s biggest economy is shifting from the “great reshuffle” – when workers changed jobs at record rates in 2021 and 2022 – to a more selective phase of hiring.
In Europe, vacancies remain above pre-pandemic levels but are falling as higher interest rates slow growth. In such an environment, voluntary job changes become riskier. Remaining employed provides a stable income and benefits like health insurance and paid leave. These advantages become more important as hiring slows in response to weaker demand.
Beyond job stability, having the option to work partly from home has become a key part of what makes a good job. Hybrid work is now among the most valued job features because it helps improve work-life balance and overall well-being. Last year, 59% of US employees said in a survey that work-life balance was a top priority when considering job changes, ahead of pay.
People tend to change jobs more often when the economy is growing and less when the outlook is uncertain.
But there is evidence that companies are gradually offering less flexibility to new hires, often expecting them to spend more time in the office at first. Employees who already have hybrid work arrangements enjoy a benefit that may be hard to find elsewhere.
Financially, the benefits that once made job changes attractive have diminished. Despite moderate pay increases, once adjusted for inflation, real wages remain below 2021 levels in several economies.
There is growing evidence that even in a tight labor market, with more job openings than available workers, pay is no longer rising as quickly as before. Employers are also less likely to make counteroffers – pay rises or promotions to persuade staff to stay – and offer signing bonuses as they tighten budgets.
People tend to change jobs more often when the economy is growing and less when the outlook is uncertain. As recruitment slows and flexible work becomes harder to secure, waiting to move could be the smarter option. Stability is not inertia; it is a strategy.
Why changing jobs can still be the right move
By Silke Mischke, Senior Leadership Advisor and Lecturer, IMD
As major companies announce fresh rounds of layoffs and growth moderates across key economies, many professionals are choosing to stay put. Yet periods of uncertainty often create openings for those willing to move deliberately. A well-planned move can still pay off, even in a turbulent job market.
This reality brings the topic of career transitions into sharp focus. What do they truly entail, and how can people handle them with confidence when the outlook is uncertain?
Recent research shows that career transitions have evolved from one-off events into a continuous process of professional development. Data from the US Department of Labor shows that median job tenure has declined from 4.9 years in 2014 to 3.6 years in 2024, suggesting that people are changing jobs more frequently.
Transitions can be self-initiated or triggered by external pressures such as a company restructuring or AI replacing some roles. Those who move voluntarily are often motivated by a desire to follow their passion, find a better work-life balance, or find greater meaning in their career. By focusing on what motivates them, they build careers that reflect their changing goals.
By contrast, transitions caused by external shocks often come with higher levels of stress and uncertainty.
By contrast, transitions caused by external shocks often come with higher levels of stress and uncertainty. Yet career changes can open opportunities for reinvention.
Looking at the experiences of Vera Wang, who left a career in figure skating and then journalism to become one of the world’s leading fashion designers, and Jeff Bezos, who left finance to build Amazon, shows how resilience, intuition, and vision can turn change into progress.
Rethinking career transitions as an opportunity, rather than a setback, means seeing change as a way to move forward with purpose instead of simply reacting to uncertainty. In practice, that can mean taking a role in a smaller company to gain broader responsibility, moving into an adjacent function to build new skills, or stepping back for further study to reorient a career.
By staying adaptable, nurturing professional connections, and focusing on what matters most, workers can turn uncertainty into progress and position themselves for what comes next.
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