Scenario 1
The static view: Regulation as a trade barrier
The cost of compliance
In the short term, the debate around CSRD focuses on complexity and compliance costs. CSRD compliance will no doubt raise operating costs, though the extent will vary by company size, sector, and existing sustainability practices.
One large multinational that falls under the scope of the CSRD estimates that it has spent $18m on automating its carbon-emissions data reporting and expects to spend another $50m-$60m over the coming years to comply fully with the CSRD.
Debate over complexity and cost – as well as the impact on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) – has led to discussions about simplifying sustainability regulations. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has committed to reducing reporting obligations by at least 25% in the first half of 2025. However, one report has suggested that these efforts will simply result in only larger companies falling within the scope of the CSRD.
However, it is important to note that this is characterized as a simplification, and streamlining effort and compliance costs will still be a factor. In this static scenario, these costs could create a competitive gap over time. Companies that focus solely on non-EU markets may avoid the burden, while those already aligned with high ESG standards may gain an advantage. Eventually, this divergence could reshape global trade patterns, with firms either adapting to EU rules or deciding to specialize in markets with lower regulatory barriers.