It would be a mistake to associate this inward turn only with Republican politicians; the Biden Administration took various measures in May 2024 to restrict US market access to imports and the new administration post the November 2024 election may accelerate protectionist measures.
Given that the US imports more than $3tn worth of goods each year, loss of access to the US market would have a significant adverse impact on the top-line revenue of many foreign firms.
But sectors differ in their exposure to US markets in both absolute and relative terms, so blanket statements about exposure to America’s inward turn are unwise. Using international trade data that leverages the UN method of grouping products into “chapters,” a recent Global Trade Alert briefing analyzes which foreign suppliers are most dependent on US market access and therefore are most vulnerable to further protectionist measures.
A foreign sector is more vulnerable to the loss of access to the US market when:
The following suppliers to the US are deemed to be the most vulnerable to high tariff charges or restricted market access:
By contrast, the following sectors are less exposed to potential tariff increases:
In eight sectors, growth in imports of non-US products is so weak that full replacement of lost US market sales would, on current trends, not take place until after 2035.
This highlights the importance of penetrating and growing market share in alternative export destinations to hedge against the potential loss of US market access. Geographic sales diversification can help mitigate this trade policy risk.
Even if the US does not escalate its recent policy of imposing higher import barriers, increased trade policy uncertainty will take its toll on investment, market entry, and sourcing decisions. Fortunately, there are plenty of commercial opportunities beyond US markets.
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