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Brain Circuits

5 strategic imperatives to transform geopolitical turbulence into advantage

Published March 12, 2026 in Brain Circuits • 3 min read

Research indicates that 14% of companies report net positive effects from political risks that disrupted competitors, creating market openings to capitalize on temporary dislocations and long-term shifts in global trade patterns. Simon J Evenett and Oliver Jones show how to navigate geopolitical volatility and turn uncertainty into competitive advantage.

Turning disruption into opportunity

Capitalizing on geopolitical opportunities requires deliberate investment in organizational capabilities that function effectively amid constant change and uncertainty. This means building strategic flexibility through systematic diversification of markets, suppliers, and production bases – creating “option value” that enables rapid adaptation to changing geopolitical conditions while maintaining operational efficiency and competitive positioning.

The growing availability of high-quality open-source intelligence resources, including specialized podcasts and analytical publications, helps executives develop a sophisticated understanding of officials’ worldviews, strategic priorities, and decision-making frameworks. This knowledge facilitates more productive interactions with government stakeholders and enables better anticipation of regulatory or policy changes that create competitive advantages for prepared organizations.

Five strategic imperatives

1. Build strategic flexibility through diversification

Create option value by diversifying markets, suppliers, and production bases. This enables rapid adaptation to changing geopolitical conditions while maintaining competitive positioning.

2. Quantify geopolitical impact for informed decision-making

Implement financial modeling to assess scenario implications across all business functions. When executives can see seven-, eight-, or nine-digit risks at stake, they can make informed resource allocation decisions.

3. Develop internal geopolitical intelligence capabilities

Invest in dedicated teams or embed expertise across functions, ensuring diverse cultural and geographic perspectives, drawing on external expertise to provide comprehensive perspectives. Establish methodical knowledge of retention mechanisms to build cumulative organizational intelligence and resilience.

4. Integrate geopolitical thinking across the enterprise

Move beyond siloed risk management to embed geopolitical considerations into strategic planning, investment decisions, and daily operations. Consider integration with mature enterprise risk management programs.

5. Transform disruption into competitive advantage

Develop a sophisticated “geopolitical radar” to identify commercial opportunities arising from volatility. Engage strategically with policymakers and leverage organizational agility to capitalize when competitors retreat.

Questions to consider

  • Are geopolitical considerations integrated into our core business processes (rather than siloed in specialized government affairs or traditional risk-management functions)?
  • Is our strategy informed by diverse cultural and geographic perspectives?
  • Can we adapt rapidly to changing conditions while maintaining operational efficiency and competitive positioning?
  • Do we understand what motivates national security officials and other key policymakers?
  • Are we capturing and retaining cumulative organizational intelligence?

 

Authors

Simon Evenett

Simon J. Evenett

Professor of Geopolitics and Strategy at IMD

Simon J. Evenett is Professor of Geopolitics and Strategy at IMD and a leading expert on trade, investment, and global business dynamics. With nearly 30 years of experience, he has advised executives and guided students in navigating significant shifts in the global economy. In 2023, he was appointed Co-Chair of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Trade and Investment.

Evenett founded the St Gallen Endowment for Prosperity Through Trade, which oversees key initiatives like the Global Trade Alert and Digital Policy Alert. His research focuses on trade policy, geopolitical rivalry, and industrial policy, with over 250 publications. He has held academic positions at the University of St. Gallen, Oxford University, and Johns Hopkins University.

Oliver-Jones-1

Oliver Jones

EY-Parthenon Global Client Insight and Research Leader and EY-Parthenon Global Geostrategic Business Group Leader

Oliver Jones has been a partner at EY-Parthenon for over 14 years. He was based in Sydney, Australia, from 2010 to 2018 and is now located in London, England. He currently holds three senior global leadership positions: EY-Parthenon Global Markets Leader for Strategy and Transactions, Sustainability Leader, and Head of the EY-Parthenon Geostrategic Business Group, the firm’s specialist global geopolitical advisory team.

Before beginning his consulting career, Jones served as a senior civil servant in the UK Government, working across four departments: the former Department of Trade and Industry, the Prime Minister’s Office, HM Treasury, and the Department for Transport.

He holds an MA in Geography from the University of Cambridge.

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