New IMD research 2025
In an era of rising economic nationalism and intensifying rivalries, business leaders with extensive cross-border operations must develop sharper agility and foresight. Their ability to make informed decisions in this volatile environment hinges on the strength of their so-called geopolitical radar – their capacity to effectively track and proactively assess these shifting dynamics.
This requires a fundamental shift in mindset from relying on backward-looking, experience-driven assessments of geopolitical risks to embracing a more forward-looking tracking of geopolitical dynamics, combined with rigorous scenario planning.
This white paper, the result of collaboration between IMD, Boston Consulting Group and the World Economic Forum, provides a status report on how firms are enhancing their detection, understanding and assessment of the many geopolitical factors that have emerged over the past decade.
Ships and airplanes need radars – so do international businesses.
From Blind Spots to Insights:
Enhancing Geopolitical Radar to Guide Global Business
What issues are on the geopolitical radar of global companies?
Interviewees identified over 80 different geopolitical factors that are relevant to their business.
Focus on the urgency of present events can mask deeper insights into geopolitical drivers and trends with a more material impact on risks and opportunities.
Six groups of geopolitical factors were frequently mentioned.
US-China relations and security-related geopolitical factors are top-of-mind for the corporate executives interviewed.
Above and beneath: Radar plus sonar
While radar enhances the capacity of companies to track and assess geopolitical shifts, sonar provides added context on the drivers and trends underlying these events.
There’s no one-size-fits-all solution in terms of how companies implement and operationalize their geopolitical radar and sonar.
Investing in geopolitical radar and sonar: Six potential payoffs
International business is generally reactive to geopolitical dynamics. It’s time to move towards a more active, forward-looking approach and invest in the necessary capabilities.
The report highlights six commercial payoffs resulting from better navigation of geopolitical currents. Companies with significant cross-border operations have a vested interest in strengthening their capacity to understand both the risks and opportunities presented by unfolding geopolitical dynamics.
Building an effective geopolitical radar and sonar can lead to big wins and performance gains over the short, medium and long term.
Company insights and contributors
The white paper collates insights from interviews with senior executives from 25 major businesses from different geographies and industries.
These companies are both publicly listed and private. They share a common characteristic: a significant cross-border, multi-jurisdictional, global commercial footprint and therefore a vested interest in an open world economy.
Done right, this critical capability could itself become a source of competitive advantage and competence.
Contributors
Simon J. Evenett
Professor of Geopolitics and Strategy, International Institute for Management Development (IMD), Co-Chair, Global Future Council on Trade and Investment, World Economic Forum
Cristián Rodriguez Chiffelle
Partner and Director, Trade, Investment and Geopolitics, Boston Consulting Group
Simon Lacey
Head, Digital Trade and Geopolitics, World Economic Forum
Learn with IMD - New online program
Geopolitics Series: Navigating America’s New Direction
Empower your business to thrive in a changing global landscape
As President Trump begins his term in office, sweeping executive orders and long-term policy initiatives are set to redefine the global business landscape. Businesses and global markets are bracing for transformative changes aimed at reshaping domestic and international priorities.
IMD’s online Geopolitics Series: Navigating America’s New Direction program is a four-part series providing a deep dive into four pivotal areas: trade policy, energy transitions, digital regulation, and tax reform.
If you’re looking to deepen your knowledge of the geoeconomic environment, learn to navigate uncertainty with confidence, and turn disruption into advantage, click below to find out more.
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Successfully navigating geopolitical rivalry requires a robust geopolitical radar
The mention of geopolitics leads many to ask how company strategies are being reformulated to capitalize on what’s left of globalization. But this overlooks a critical prior question: what’s the best way for firms to track and assess geopolitical developments in the first place? For that, firms must build an effective geopolitical radar says Simon J. Evenett.