The economics of AI and people: what are we worth now?
Understanding what makes people willing to collaborate with AI matters because when they experiment and learn, the economic returns are far larger than most organizations capture. But how do we measure these returns and the value that the human-AI collaboration can bring to an organization? And how do we assess human value in the age of AI?
Borrowing from economic theory, let’s say that AI and data enter the organization as a new factor of production alongside capital and human labor. We can then deploy a simplified version of an equation that economists use to explain how factors of production (capital, labor, data, and AI in the case I am illustrating here) create value:
Y = f(C, L, AI, D)
Y stands for the value an organization produces. The rest of the equation says that this value is a function of capital, labor, AI, and data working together. The strategic question for leaders is: with which combination of factors does the organization have the greatest opportunity to create something distinctive? Or put differently, how intensively the organization should use each factor to create a competitive advantage. Given that humans are needed and wanted in the creation of value with AI, this framing allows executives to think about value and substitution in a more granular way.
- Substitution happens when AI performs cognitive work at a fraction of the cost of a human. When AI can perform a task faster, cheaper, and at equivalent quality, economic logic is unambiguous: that task should migrate to AI. Resisting substitution is not a defense of human dignity; it is a misallocation of resources.
- Enhancement happens when AI augments human professionals and both become significantly more productive. Enhancement is where the logic becomes more complex. A professional who, with AI assistance, can do the work of three is genuinely more valuable. So far, the general narrative leaders have used to reduce anxiety in the organization is that the AI transformation will bring far more enhancement than substitution. But this narrative is failing to convince people because enhancement can easily lead to substitution. Three enhanced workers can do the job of 4 non-enhance workers. Hence, for efficiency reasons and to demonstrate that the AI transformation delivers real ROI, headcount gets reduced. Enhancement carries a substitution shadow that honest leaders should name rather than obscure.
- Expansion occurs when AI makes it possible to solve problems that were once beyond our cognitive reach because the cost of processing vast numbers of variables, scenarios, and interactions has collapsed. Expansion is where the growth argument lives: enhanced humans, paired with AI handling what it does best, can not only do the same as they were doing faster or better, but also pursue new sources of value previously out of reach, not because the organization worked harder or hired more people, but because the combination of human judgment and AI capacity makes certain things possible for the first time. The value created in expansion mode is categorically different from doing old work faster: it is value the organization could not have produced without both ingredients working together, the AI and the human labor.
Let’s take an example. A law firm that uses AI to draft routine contracts is substituting. A lawyer who uses AI to analyze 10 times more case precedents before advising a client is being enhanced. A firm that uses that enhanced lawyer, freed from drafting, to enter a market for complex cross-border advisory work it never had the capacity to serve before is expanding, generating revenue from a capability that did not exist in the organization before AI entered the equation.
Surfacing these three dynamics matters, not least, because they redefine compensation. In any production function, the marginal cost of a factor reflects its marginal contribution to output – in other words, how much a firm needs to invest in that factor to produce one extra unit of a good or service. For human labor, that marginal cost is salary. As AI absorbs substitutional cognitive work, the marginal contribution of professionals in those roles declines, and their market wage falls with it. As AI enhances professionals, the marginal contribution of their judgment rises as it becomes the input that determines whether AI’s output creates or destroys value, thereby exerting upward pressure on compensation. At the expanded frontier, where professionals are generating forms of value the organization has never captured before, the marginal contribution of their capability has no historical benchmark, and their compensation will reflect that novelty.
Organizations that retain legacy compensation structures will systematically misprice the inputs that matter most to value creation. The equation under discussion gives executives a framework for that repricing by making visible which factors are gaining or losing marginal contribution, and by connecting compensation decisions to the underlying production logic rather than historical precedent and internal politics. It allows leaders to ask, with clarity, whether they are allocating resources across capital, labor, AI, and data in a way that reflects where value is being created. Executives can also use it to read their competitors and their industry with the same logic, asking where rivals are investing across the four factors, where the industry is substituting or enhancing, and where the expanded frontier is most likely to emerge.