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by Michael Watkins Published September 23, 2026 in Brain Circuits • 3 min read
You state the problem, hear options, and start choosing – but if you frame the problem incorrectly, even a sound decision process will produce the wrong answer.
Before deliberation even begins, you dismiss options based on untested assumptions about what is possible.
Inclusive decision-making feels responsible but can be counterproductive. Blenko, Mankins, and Rogers identified the “Rule of Seven” – every person added to a decision-making group beyond seven reduces decision effectiveness by 10%. It’s also about who speaks and when. When the most senior leader speaks first, everyone else self-edits. Junior people with fresh perspectives hold back.
Rarely is “do nothing” put on the table as a choice with its own costs. The underlying fear is that a bad decision will be damaging and permanent – but most decisions are far more reversible than they feel in the moment.
This trap happens after the meeting ends. There was agreement, and the direction seemed clear – but nothing happens because people left without genuine buy-in. They then hedge their bets, expecting the strategy to shift, the executive to rotate, or new data to change the picture.
No one returns to ask whether the process was sound, whether the outcome was good or lucky, or what could be learned. Without this reflection, you will repeat your traps indefinitely, developing habitual blind spots and never building the pattern recognition that helps you improve.
Go through these questions to make sure your decision-trap radar is working:
The leaders who make the best decisions are those who have learned to recognize their own patterns and build the simple disciplines that keep them from repeating them.
Professor of Leadership and Organizational Change
Michael D Watkins is Professor of Leadership and Organizational Change at IMD, and author of The First 90 Days, Master Your Next Move, Predictable Surprises, and 12 other books on leadership and negotiation. His book, The Six Disciplines of Strategic Thinking, explores how executives can learn to think strategically and lead their organizations into the future. A Thinkers 50-ranked management influencer and recognized expert in his field, his work features in HBR Guides and HBR’s 10 Must Reads on leadership, teams, strategic initiatives, and new managers. Over the past 20 years, he has used his First 90 Days® methodology to help leaders make successful transitions, both in his teaching at IMD, INSEAD, and Harvard Business School, where he gained his PhD in decision sciences, as well as through his private consultancy practice Genesis Advisers. At IMD, he directs the First 90 Days open program for leaders taking on challenging new roles and co-directs the Transition to Business Leadership (TBL) executive program for future enterprise leaders, as well as the Program for Executive Development.
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