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Leading in Turbulent Times

Artificial intelligence

Turn uncertainty into a strength with scenarios

IbyIMD+12 May 2023 • by Patrick Reinmoeller in Leading in Turbulent Times

By offering different possible versions of the future, leaders can get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions....

Whether you call it a ‘polycrisis’ or a ‘permacrisis’, there is no doubt that we are living in an age where multiple crises are unfolding simultaneously, many of which will occupy us for a long time.

With the future holding unknown possibilities, scenario analysis is a useful tool to bring people together to think creatively -without bias – about the future.

Scenarios have been used since ancient times, and more recently, by companies such as Shell to consider multiple versions of the future to help make decisions and inform strategy.

The biggest misconception around scenarios is that they are about predicting the future. This is not the case. It’s impossible to forecast the future with any accuracy and, in a world of multiple crises, the crystal ball gets even foggier.

Take the example of the rapid development of generative AI, which has occupied many executives since Microsoft-backed Open AI’s ChatGPT was launched last November. Since then, a whole range of worst-case…

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