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Twenty-five years from now, Richard Baldwin (IMD Business School) argues, the world trade system will not have collapsed but been rebuilt, into three blocs, Europe, the US and China, none strong enough to dominate the others. Writing for CEPR’s Europe 2050 series as a “future history” looking back from 2050, he contends Europe should not try to …

China’s monthly trade releases attract attention as concerns mount about job loss and deindustrialisation abroad. Using data through to the end of the first half of this year, this briefing asks how much China’s manufactured exports have grown since 2023.[1] My best apples-for-apples estimate, imports of manufactured goods from China rose from $…

A number of observers argue that a second China Shock is reshaping world goods markets. Tordoir and Setser (2026) describe a rise in Chinese manufacturing supply that is said to be displacing producers in Germany. A Financial Times report describes it as “the flood of high-tech goods that will change the world” (McMorrow and others, 2026). The E…

Deep learning is increasingly presented in economics as a new paradigm for solving dynamic models, superseding the classical projection methods of numerical economics. We argue that this dichotomy rests on a misclassification. The neural-network solvers emphasized in this literature are least-squares projection methods with an adaptive nonlinear…

“The United States under President Trump will simply not allow its manufacturing and defense industrial foundation to be hollowed out by trade fraud masquerading as commerce,” declares The Great Transshipment Scam, published yesterday by the White House. Last year’s tariff hikes on Chinese goods and those imposed in 2018 were meant to “protect U…

National political debates necessarily simplify. Political leaders seeking to win over millions of voters cannot qualify every argument, distinguish every mechanism or rehearse every piece of evidence. Short explanations, memorable examples and clear prescriptions are part of effective political communication. There is nothing surprising about t…

On 28 July 2026 China’s MOFCOM published a position paper on the trade-related aspects of excess capacity. This follows the initiation in March 2026 of a U.S. investigation into such matters as they relate to 16 trading partners, including China. That investigation may soon result in further import restrictions being imposed by the United States…

The Turnberry deal, agreed at a political level on 27 July 2025 and elaborated in the 21 August 2025 Joint Statement, established a framework intended to stabilise transatlantic trade while reducing bilateral trade tensions. The deal came into effect on 1 September 2025. Under the agreement, the United States established a ceiling of 15% for imp…

Six months of data since the Busan Accord shows China shipped the world more rare earth magnets than in any of the previous four years. A year earlier, China had threatened to restrict rare earth supply altogether. This briefing examines how those supplies were shared unevenly across China’s major trading partners.

Digital ecosystems have moved to the top of the strategic agenda. Seventy-four percent of senior leaders rate them as a high or top priority, and 82% plan to increase engagement. Yet beneath this consensus lies a structural disconnect. Most organizations share data only moderately with partners, only 9% have achieved joint cross-organization dat…