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This paper extends the New Industrial Policy Observatory (NIPO) dataset from 2009 to 2023 by employing large language model techniques to identify policy motivations. We document widespread industrial policy adoption across advanced and emerging market economies since the Great Financial Crisis, which was implemented primarily through subsidies …
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The United States has incorporated restrictive third-country provisions—informally referred to as “poison pills”—in three trade instruments: the 2018 United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), and very recently the 2025 United States-Malaysia Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART), and the 2025 United States-Cambodia ART. These provisions allow…
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Ahead of the 2025 ASEAN Leaders Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, four texts were released by the White House relating to trade, investment, and security matters. The full text of two trade accords were released for Cambodia and Malaysia. Progress reports on talks with Thailand and Vietnam were released. What follows are reflections on the texts…
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Yesterday’s document amounts to little more than an update on the price the EU is prepared to pay to retain some access to the United States’ market and the plan of action—such as it is—going forward. To paraphrase Churchill, this represents the end of the beginning–not the beginning of the end. As this is not a binding accord, risk premia will…
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The Commission’s import surveillance task force was established in response to concerns about trade redirection arising from increased US tariffs on Chinese imports. The fear was that Chinese products unable to access the US market would seek alternative routes into the European Union—a phenomenon known as trade redirection or trade deflection. …
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