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This note explains the implications of the Supreme Court’s ruling of 20 February 2026 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not provide a legal basis for the imposition of tariffs and sets out the factors likely to govern US trade policy in its aftermath. Implications of this ruling are drawn for trading partners and corporat…

A quarter-century of trade data reveals that the 2025 United States tariff shock did not produce an abnormal redistribution of Chinese exports across third markets. Non-US destination shares of Chinese exports varied less in 2025 than during the Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19 pandemic — findings that weaken the case for emulating American …

Now that a full set of Chinese monthly export data is available for 2025, it is possible to revisit the prominent claim that higher U.S. import tariffs imposed last year led to a massive redirection of Chinese exports to other trading partners. A total of USD 150 billion of Chinese exports was redirected from the U.S. market—most of it ended up …

Escalation Dominance—the ability to credibly threaten escalation to higher levels of conflict while convincing adversaries you would prevail at those levels—depends on unity. So says conventional wisdom. A coherent government that can demonstrate capability and will across the escalation ladder should deter opponents from raising stakes. By this…

In today’s fragmented global economy, successful companies are building systematic capabilities to turn geopolitical awareness into strategic action. A new report, lead-authored by Simon Evenett, examines how firms are developing ‘geopolitical muscle’ to navigate—and capitalize on—opportunities in an increasingly complex environment.

As we enter 2026, the global share of women in executive leadership has fallen below 31%, reversing decades of slow but steady progress – despite unprecedented investment in leadership development, diversity initiatives, and gender equity commitments. This is not a paradox. It is evidence of a system that no longer matches the realities of leade…

Our goal here is to demonstrate how readily available trade statistics can inform debates about the growing threat posed by China’s most successful goods exports to the vanguard firms in her trading partners. We analyse the overlap between China’s top export products and the export portfolios of major trading partners. We calculate the shares of…

This paper extends the New Industrial Policy Observatory (NIPO) dataset from 2009 to 2023 by employing large language model techniques to identify policy motivations. We document widespread industrial policy adoption across advanced and emerging market economies since the Great Financial Crisis, which was implemented primarily through subsidies …

This paper develops a new toolkit for analysing how global shocks affect the geographical and functional distribution of global value chains (GVCs) at the subnational level. Using the toolkit, which we call the shocks approach to indicator design, we derive a family of GVC indicators that distinguish between import and export‑side GVC exposure, …

Switzerland leads 69 nations in digital competitiveness – but its position is threatened by trade fragmentation. Today’s trade fragmentation means countries and regions are in a race against time to find new strategic advantages in the digital sphere, says IMD’s 2025 Digital Competitiveness Ranking. Switzerland, the US, and Singapore are the mos…

The United States has incorporated restrictive third-country provisions—informally referred to as “poison pills”—in three trade instruments: the 2018 United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), and very recently the 2025 United States-Malaysia Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART), and the 2025 United States-Cambodia ART. These provisions allow…