
Five supply chain trends for 2024
After several years of unprecedented disruption, will 2024 be any easier for supply chain leaders? Almost certainly not....
by Robert Hooijberg, Arturo Bris, David Bach, José Parra Moyano, Michael R. Wade, Julia Binder, Howard H. Yu, Simon J. Evenett, Alyson Meister, Salvatore Cantale, Stefan Michel Published 20 December 2024 in 2024 trends • 11 min read
Correct!
With spectacular clairvoyance, Robert Hooijberg rightly predicted that big-name firms would start to reverse flexible working policies. Disney mandated a four-day return to the office, Starbucks required remote workers to return to the office at least three days a week, and Amazon went further, demanding a full five days in the office.
Wrong – so far.
While the widely predicted banking crisis did not materialize to the extent some experts forecast, dozens of smaller, mainly rural banks were taken over by bigger entities as they succumbed to real-estate debts and other problems, and the banking sector is still highly vulnerable to the fallout of China's property crisis. To quote Zhou Enlai, the Prime Minister of Maoist China, when asked to gauge the effect of the French Revolution almost 200 years later: “It’s too early to judge.”
Wrong!
This year’s US presidential election campaign had more twists and turns than a helter-skelter shorn of its moorings. One of the biggest surprises was Joe Biden dropping out of the race in July to make way for Kamala Harris. With the benefit of hindsight, it seems reasonable to say that he would likely have performed even worse than his last-minute successor, so nul points here.
Correct!
The cryptocurrency surged past its all-time high in March, driven by anticipation surrounding this year’s halving, which historically reduces supply and contributes to price surges. In December, following the US presidential election results, the cryptocurrency continued its upward trajectory, as market analysts speculated on potential policy shifts regarding digital currencies (see Arturo Bris’ forecast below).
Correct!
Michael Wade correctly anticipated that few, if any, of the major powers would enact legislation on responsible AI or AI safety in 2024. One of the most far-reaching AI safety bills – the Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act – was vetoed by California Governor Gavin Newson on concerns the bill was too broad and would have placed too much burden on AI companies. There was some movement on the other side of the Atlantic, where the European Parliament did adopt the Artificial Intelligence Act in March 2024. This is scheduled to become "fully applicable” 24 months after entry into force, with some parts applicable sooner. We wait to see...
Correct!
Julia Binder was right to foresee that COP 29 would fail to produce any significant shifts in positions on climate goals. Negotiations on many issues broke down, while commentators believe Azerbaijan's role as host of the annual talks – President Ilham Aliyev described oil and gas as a “gift of the god” – showed a complete failure of leadership. COP that, planet Earth!
Correct!
Howard Yu forecasted that Chinese manufacturers could sell more EVs than their European and US counterparts combined in 2024. While full-year official statistics are not yet available, according to the China Passenger Car Association, global sales of EVs reached 14.1 million units, with 69% of those sales taking place in China. In October China’s share of the global electric car market rose further, to 76%, with strong (and increasing) domestic demand offsetting risks to exports posed by Western tariffs on Chinese-made EVs.
Wrong!
Perhaps mindful of upsetting the “red wedge” of historically Labour-supporting voters who voted for the Conservative Party (and, by association, for Brexit) in 2019, the Labour Party ruled out rejoining the EU single market and customs union in its 2024 General Election manifesto. But wait! In December, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves told finance leaders that the UK does want closer relations with the EU. Will Evenett’s crystal ball be proven right after all?
Correct!
Despite the growing interest and investment in their therapeutic potential, Alyson Meister was right to predict that widespread adoption of psychedelics as a leadership tool depended on legal changes, scientific validation, and shifts in corporate culture, so the possibility of their becoming a leadership tool is still some way off. Still, watch this head space...
Correct!
This one was right on the money, with not only the S&P 500 but the Nasdaq, too, hitting record closing highs in December. This followed upbeat forecasts from US companies, and with employment data fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates again (it has lowered rates by a cumulative one percentage point since it started cutting them in September 2024).
Correct!
CBDCs were undoubtedly the center of attention in the crypto space. And, with Donald Trump’s pro-crypto administration preparing to take the reins of government in January, crypto investors everywhere are celebrating. (President-elect Trump has even nominated cryptocurrency advocate Paul Atkins to head the US Securities and Exchange Commission).
Correct!
Stefan Michel was right to forecast that the Swiss men’s football team would not win the 2024 Euros, but it did exceed his expectations in getting to the quarter-finals, where it lost narrowly (on penalties, in fact) to eventual finalists England. Then again, another of his prophecies also came true: Marco Odermatt won the Alpine Ski World Championship title for the third year running, firmly cementing his status as one of the greatest skiers of his generation.
Professor of Organizational Behaviour at IMD
Robert Hooijberg is Professor of Organizational Behavior at IMD. His areas of special interest are leadership, negotiations, team building, digital transformation, and organizational culture. Before joining IMD in September 2000, Professor Hooijberg taught at Rutgers University in their MBA and Executive MBA programs in New Jersey, Singapore, and Beijing. He is Program Director of the Breakthrough Program for Senior Executives and the Negotiating for Value Creation course.
Professor of Finance at IMD
Arturo Bris is Professor of Finance at IMD. Since January 2014, he has led the world-renowned IMD World Competitiveness Center. At IMD, Bris directs the Boards and Risks program and Blockchain and the Future of Finance program. He also previously directed the flagship Advanced Strategic Management program between 2009 and 2013.
President of IMD and Nestlé Professor of Strategy and Political Economy
David Bach is President of IMD and Nestlé Professor of Strategy and Political Economy. He assumed the Presidency of IMD on 1 September 2024. He is working to broaden and deepen IMD’s global impact through learning innovation, excellence in degree- and executive programs, and applied thought leadership. Recognized globally as an innovator in management education, Bach previously served as IMD’s Dean of Innovation and Programs.
Professor of Digital Strategy
José Parra Moyano is Professor of Digital Strategy. He focuses on the management and economics of data and privacy and how firms can create sustainable value in the digital economy. An award-winning teacher, he also founded his own successful startup, was appointed to the World Economic Forum’s Global Shapers Community of young people driving change, and was named on the Forbes ‘30 under 30’ list of outstanding young entrepreneurs in Switzerland. At IMD, he teaches in a variety of programs, such as the MBA and Strategic Finance programs, on the topic of AI, strategy, and Innovation.
TONOMUS Professor of Strategy and Digital
Michael R Wade is TONOMUS Professor of Strategy and Digital at IMD and Director of the TONOMUS Global Center for Digital and AI Transformation. He directs a number of open programs such as Leading Digital and AI Transformation, Digital Transformation for Boards, Leading Digital Execution, Digital Transformation Sprint, Digital Transformation in Practice, Business Creativity and Innovation Sprint. He has written 10 books, hundreds of articles, and hosted popular management podcasts including Mike & Amit Talk Tech. In 2021, he was inducted into the Swiss Digital Shapers Hall of Fame.
Professor of Sustainable innovation and Business Transformation at IMD
Julia Binder, Professor of Sustainable Innovation and Business Transformation, is a renowned thought leader recognized on the 2022 Thinkers50 Radar list for her work at the intersection of sustainability and innovation. As Director of IMD’s Center for Sustainable and Inclusive Business, Binder is dedicated to leveraging IMD’s diverse expertise on sustainability topics to guide business leaders in discovering innovative solutions to contemporary challenges. At IMD, Binder serves as Program Director for Creating Value in the Circular Economy and teaches in key open programs including the Advanced Management Program (AMP), Transition to Business Leadership (TBL), TransformTech (TT), and Leading Sustainable Business Transformation (LSBT). She is involved in the school’s EMBA and MBA programs, and contributes to IMD’s custom programs, crafting transformative learning journeys for clients globally.
LEGO® Chair Professor of Management and Innovation at IMD
Howard Yu, hailing from Hong Kong, holds the title of LEGO® Professor of Management and Innovation at IMD. He leads the Center for Future Readiness, founded in 2020 with support from the LEGO Brand Group, to guide companies through strategic transformation. Recognized globally for his expertise, he was honored in 2023 with the Thinkers50 Strategy Award, recognizing his substantial contributions to management strategy and future readiness. At IMD, Howard directs the Strategy for Future Readiness and Business Growth Strategies programs.
Professor of Geopolitics and Strategy at IMD
Simon J. Evenett is Professor of Geopolitics and Strategy at IMD and a leading expert on trade, investment, and global business dynamics. With nearly 30 years of experience, he has advised executives and guided students in navigating significant shifts in the global economy. In 2023, he was appointed Co-Chair of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Trade and Investment.
Evenett founded the St Gallen Endowment for Prosperity Through Trade, which oversees key initiatives like the Global Trade Alert and Digital Policy Alert. His research focuses on trade policy, geopolitical rivalry, and industrial policy, with over 250 publications. He has held academic positions at the University of St. Gallen, Oxford University, and Johns Hopkins University.
Professor of Leadership and Organizational Behavior at IMD
Alyson Meister is Professor of Leadership and Organizational Behavior and Director of the Future Leaders program and the Resilient Leadership Sprint, she is also co-director of the Change Management Program at IMD Business School. Specializing in the development of globally oriented, adaptive, and inclusive organizations, she has worked with executives, teams, and organizations from professional services to industrial goods and technology. She also serves as co-chair of One Mind at Work’s Scientific Advisory Committee, with a focus on advancing mental health in the workplace. Follow her on Twitter: @alymeister.
Professor of Finance at IMD
Salvatore Cantale is Professor of Finance at IMD. His major research and consulting interests are in value creation, valuation, and the way in which corporations structure liabilities and choose financing options. Additionally, he is interested in the relation between finance and leadership, and in the leadership role of the finance function. He directs the Finance for Boards, Business Finance, and the Strategic Finance programs as well as the Driving Sustainability from the Boardroom program and the newly designed Bank Governance program.
Professor of Management and Dean of Faculty and Research
Professor Stefan Michel‘s primary research interests are AI’s impact on strategy, pricing, and customer-centricity. He has written 13 books, numerous award-winning articles and ranks among the top 40 bestselling case study authors worldwide by The Case Centre. He is currently Dean of Faculty and Research at IMD and is also Program Director of IMD’s Strategic Thinking program. This new 8-week online program with 1-1 coaching helps professionals become better strategists while working on a concrete strategic initiative for their organizations.
31 January 2024 • by Carlos Cordon in 2024 trends
After several years of unprecedented disruption, will 2024 be any easier for supply chain leaders? Almost certainly not....
5 January 2024 • by Robert Hooijberg, Arturo Bris, David Bach, José Parra Moyano, Michael R. Wade, Julia Binder, Howard H. Yu, Simon J. Evenett, Alyson Meister, Salvatore Cantale, Stefan Michel in 2024 trends
What can we expect to see over the coming year? IMD professors offer their expert predictions, and we invite you to join in....
1 January 2024 • by Jean-François Manzoni, Michael D. Watkins, Susan Goldsworthy, Richard Roi, Katharina Lange, Jennifer Jordan, Alyson Meister, Winter Nie in 2024 trends
Unsurprisingly, most leaders are feeling the pressure right now. How can you lead for sustained success in a world of constant change? ...
31 December 2023 • by Michael R. Wade, Amit M. Joshi, Howard H. Yu, Simon J. Evenett, Johannes Fritz, Goutam Challagalla, Sarah E. Toms in 2024 trends
IMD’s professors and expert contributors shed light on key trends that will shape the technological landscape in the coming year....
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