What will 2024 bring for you and your business? IMD faculty and other experts offer their predictions for the year ahead.We asked some of our best experts to cast their bets on the events that might unfold over the course of 2024 – in the full knowledge that anything can happen and often does. Will they be proved wonderfully right, or dreadfully wrong?
We’d like to know what you think, too. Take part in our survey responding yes/no to the statements below and if you get them all correct, we’ll reward your spectacular clairvoyance at the end of the year with a 12-month gift subscription to I by IMD. Winners will be notified by 10 January 2025.
YES. With the Chinese economy’s disappointing recovery post-pandemic, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) reduced
the reserve requirement for commercial banks twice during 2023 (that’s six times since 2021!) to help increase their
interest margins. At the same time, private-sector debt and banking leverage have both increased significantly, two
advanced indicators of a potential banking crisis. Chinese banks’ solvency ratios are artificially subsidized by the
PBoC, so it is likely that a shock to the real economy (real estate crash, disappointing growth figures) will trigger a
house-of-cards bank run that will make the Credit Suisse fall insignificant by comparison. And, unlike Credit Suisse and
the SNB, the PBoC would be unable to bail out institutions that are individually more than five times
bigger.
YES, but barely, and after the most divisive US presidential campaign in history. Biden will win the popular vote easily, but the electoral college, which determines the outcome of the election, will be decided by fewer than 400,000 voters across five or six states. An improving economy, Trump’s various criminal trials, and fear of autocracy will ultimately help the almost 82-year-old squeak through. Trump and his supporters will cry foul, but the institutions will hold.
YES. The next Bitcoin halving (the moment at which the reward given to the miners for every mined block halves) will occur around April 2024. When this happens, only
3.125 (instead of 6.25) Bitcoins will be rewarded to a miner mining a new block. This will significantly reduce the speed at which the supply of Bitcoin increases… if the demand keeps growing at the same pace, the price should increase. But as any consultant would say: “Don’t consider this to be financial advice.”
“If the demand of Bitcoin keeps growing at the same pace, the price should increase.”- José Parra-Moyano
NO. The challenging compromise reached at COP28 in Dubai indicates that significant shifts in positions are improbable within just a year. Moreover, the next host country, Azerbaijan, a member of the OPEC + states, is economically reliant on fossil fuels, with oil and gas production constituting nearly half of its GDP and over 92.5% of its export revenue. Azerbaijan advocates for a “transitional approach” towards moving away from fossil fuels, openly favoring a gradual shift rather than an immediate phase-out. On a positive note, there is potential for some countries, particularly in the EU, to take more ambitious steps in the coming year to phase out fossil fuels. This could involve actions such as ending fossil fuel subsidies. Additionally, COP16 on Biodiversity in Colombia is expected to yield tangible results and advance resource mobilization for the Global Biodiversity
YES. The Chinese EV market, vast and growing, is projected to sell 8.77 million EV units per year by 2028. Europe is trailing behind, with projections to sell only. China holds an additional advantage: they have control over key EV components, including producing 75% of the world’s lithium-ion batteries. That’s a reason why German car companies are expanding their manufacturing bases in China to access key technologies. All of this makes it plausible that Chinese manufacturers could sell more EVs than their European and American counterparts combined in 2024.
YES. Labour leader Keir Starmer has made it clear that he prioritizes rebuilding economic, security, and foreign policy ties with the EU. Starmer backs talks on a veterinary agreement mooted by the European Commission which would reduce border checks on animals and food. But there are limits to how far Starmer will go. Rejoining the Single Market won’t make it into Labour’s election manifesto. What makes this politically viable is the widespread perception that Brexit has been poorly handled by the Conservative government and the mounting evidence that small businesses in the UK are being squeezed out of EU markets because of red tape.
NO. 2024 will see a growing interest and research in this area, but widespread adoption as a leadership tool is likely to be more gradual, awaiting legal changes, scientific validation, and shifts in corporate culture. The legal status of psychedelics poses a significant barrier to their mainstream adoption, and this is unlikely to drastically change this year. However, there’s a growing interest and investment in their therapeutic potential, especially given recent breakthroughs intreating mental health disorders such as PTSD and depression. Informally, more people are interested in their use for general self-development and well-being, which will spill over into the leadership development realm in the future. The acceptance of psychedelics in the business community, the availability of robust research proving their efficacy in enhancing cognitive and emotional skills, and overarching policy and education to regulate their safe use, and prevent misuse, are critical.
YES. The S&P 500 reached its peak on 3 January 2022. At the time of writing (3 January 2024), exactly two years after that event, the S&P 500 is at 4,742,26 – or some 1% less than two years ago. Although 2024 will be a tricky year (the presidential elections in the US and the difficult situation in the Middle East are elements that might play a role in the performance of the stock market), on the other side, the potential of AI and the effects of the so-long expected reduction in interest rates make me believe that the 4,742,26 barrier will be passed and the S&P 500 will reach a new record high. I doubt, however, that 2024 will be such a strong year as it was 2023. In 2023, in fact, the S&P 500 rose about 24%, and most Wall Street analysts believe that in 2024 the Index will have a high one-digit increase.
YES. It is very likely that the SEC will authorize ETFs in Bitcoin and other decentralized/unregulated cryptocurrencies. While pushing the prices of these tokens up, they will not replace traditional fiat currencies. However, CBDCs, which have been piloted in several countries including China, Switzerland, and Australia, will be the center of attention in the crypto space and will trigger a good array of media and academic articles, interest by executives, and be the center of new banking products. In the absence of a good theory on how fiat currencies will live together with CBDCs, they will be a key topic of research by financial and monetary economists in 2024.
NO. The Swiss national men’s football team (German: Schweizer Fussballnationalmannschaft, or “Nati”, Italian: Nazionale di calcio della Svizzera, French: Équipe nationale suisse de football, Romansh: Squadra naziunala da ballape da la Svizra) will play in Group 1 against Germany, Scotland, and Hungary. The odds of Switzerland winning the tournament are currently at 1:5 to 1:8, with the odds of reaching the quarterfinals at just over 1:4. The Nati is trending positive: it did not qualify in 2012, advanced to “Best of 16” in 2016, and reached the quarterfinals in 2021. I predict that Switzerland will not win the tournament but will play the last game around 29 June to 2 July, when the Round of 16 is scheduled. It is not impossible that lost Swiss players have already booked their family vacation starting on 3 July. More importantly, will Marco Odermatt win the Ski Alpine World Cup again? This matters for three reasons: One, skiing is part of our identity. Two, if Odermatt wins, Austria can only be second. And three, Switzerland is all about productivity. We always prefer a job well done by one man in two minutes to overpaying 11 men for 1.5 hours.
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