This time last year, organizations were keen to know when the COVID-19 pandemic would end. By February, Russia had launched an invasion of Ukraine, worsening already high inflation and supply chain bottlenecks. The war also shook financial markets and increased the risk of global recession. After a turbulent 12 months of economic reordering, this year could herald even greater upheaval for businesses, according to predictions offered by IMD experts.
The three-decade era of globalization is about to go into reverse, and inflation, while peaking, is going to be sticky on the way down and will remain above central bank targets, IMD professors believe. Also, a reckoning is coming for capitalism and a recession is going to be bad for progress on sustainability goals, faculty said.
Some of last yearâs forecasts proved accurate, such as the rise in the price of carbon in the EUâs emissions trading system, as predicted by Professor of Finance Karl Schmedders. Our academics were also correct in predicting that monetary policy would tighten, with central banks around the world increasing interest rates last year, ending the flow of cheap money.
However, the supply chain pressures that snarled global trade throughout 2021 eased last year, while many expected them to persist. Still, scenario planning is likely to remain a valuable and strategic tool for organizations to make flexible, long-term plans. The practice can help companies prepare for unexpected events in turbulent times.
Geopolitics will trump economics
The exercise suggests that politics is trumping economics in the vital strategic decisions that corporate leaders need to make against the backdrop of market turmoil and a rapidly worsening economic outlook, according to David Bach, Professor of Strategy and Political Economy and Dean of Innovation and Programs.
âThe decisions will be based just as much on whether the outcome enhances or diminishes national security and our dependence on foreign countries as it will be about cost,â said Bach, citing recent investments in renewable energy and the reshoring of global supply chains as examples. âThat shift is going to shape the opportunities and risks that business leaders are going to face.â