从阴影中崛起:志在取代阿里巴巴和腾讯的中国新巨头
如果不关注阿里巴巴或腾讯就谈论中国的数字化商业,那是空谈。不管是消费者、企业、投资者还是竞争对手,都离不开两位马总建立的商业生态系统。他们从不同的起点(分别是电子商务和社交)开始扩张,建立起大规模的多样化和强大商业帝国。移动支付的覆盖范围如此广泛,并渗透到不断扩张的市场领域:金融服务、游戏、娱乐、交通、零售、公共福利、医疗和教育。他们同时也是中国最大的科技投资者,收购了多家最有发展前景的初创企业。
鉴于阿里巴巴和腾讯强大的市场力量和影响力,很难想象能有竞争对手能够击败它们。事实上,经常提及的BAT(百度、阿里巴巴、腾讯)中的百度一直在努力赶超规模较大的竞争对手。除阿里巴巴和腾讯之外,还有其他有活力的创新型公司吗?新一代企业家能说服中国消费者使用新的服务和平台吗?
答案是肯定的。我们认为,竞争对手的制胜关键是利用阿里巴巴和腾讯的规模来与之抗衡。这些巨头如今已是大公司,随着其规模的不断扩大,它们正逐渐失去两个构成其成功基础的关键因素。首先,它们的敏捷性有所降低:如今五万名员工的敏捷性倒不如曾经的五千名员工。其次,它们理解和响应利基消费者群体的能力随着规模的扩大反而下降。
再来看看阿里巴巴的电子商务方式。该公司有四个主要的交易平台,国内和跨境电子商务领域有5亿注册用户。阿里的确很强大,然而,他们正在和蘑菇街(一个专门关注年轻女性时尚的社交电子商务平台)激烈地争夺份额。该公司于2016年与竞争对手美丽说合并,现在是一家市值超过200亿美元的上市时装零售商。阿里的另一个竞争对手是社交电子商务平台小红书,其目标消费群是年龄段在18至35岁,且想要从海外寻找和购买奢侈品的中国城市女性。该平台的注册用户超过1.5亿,令人印象深刻的是该平台每月有5000万活跃用户。小红书吸引着外国品牌和大量资本投资,目前估值超过30亿美元。
除电商之外,我们还察觉,许多像美团这样的与基于地理定位为用户提供服务的公司也在竞争之列,其业务范围覆盖送餐、打车、电影票和旅游服务等。最新一轮投资结果显示,美团的估值超过500亿美元。美团很快就要成为一个新的“超级应用”。还有一个强大的竞争对手是字节跳动。其创始人张一鸣的第一款产品“今日头条”很快成为中国最大的新闻聚合服务产品,并在推出后的五年内超越了传统媒体和互联网巨头。字节跳动的另一项投资是抖音短视频(目前全球市值最高的初创企业,其5亿用户中有20%来自中国以外的国家和地区)。2018年字节跳动推出了多闪、gogoktd和悟空问答等服务,与阿里巴巴和腾讯直接竞争。字节跳动利用其行业领先的推荐算法,提供了无与伦比的个性化体验。
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