Social scientists have been studying sustainable transitions for decades, and one thing is clear: transitions occur in complex and contested socio-political contexts. Although climate science demonstrates the urgent need for systems to decarbonize energy sources, these transitions are often chaotic, time-consuming, and prone to setbacks, even when the necessary technologies are available. One reason is that no transition occurs without the emergence of new societal actors and technologies that disrupt the status quo.

Social research seeks to understand how large-scale societal transitions occur by identifying key dynamics and changing mechanisms. The questions raised by the social sciences can teach business executives valuable lessons about the current energy transition.

Simply put, a transition is a change within a system from one state to another. In the context of sustainability, a system changes from an unsustainable state to a sustainable one. Transitions are characterized by nonlinear dynamics and disruptive shifts.

Central to transitions theory is the notion of a regime or the dominant unsustainable system that is locked in. For example, certain components of fossil fuel-based energy systems, such as drilling infrastructure, energy plants, and transmission lines, make up a system that, in its current state, is efficient and affordable. However, it is also “locked in” because changing it would be costly and time-consuming. Emerging niches, driven by networks of actors, intervene in the regime to disrupt the dominant system and promote the adoption of novel and more sustainable energy solutions such as solar, wind, or hydropower. The transition occurs when a regime is destabilized by a niche and phased out. A transition is complete when, often out of chaos, a new order is stabilized. The figure below illustrates this shift, which can be considered a paradigm change.