Scenario analysis is a key tool for organizations wanting to unpick and understand the complexities of a digitally disrupted environment. We have developed a set of four scenarios each describing a challenging new business world in 2025. The scenarios focus on external factors over which individual organizations have little or no control. In order to challenge thinking and help decision-makers test their strategy and underlying assumptions we have identified the three factors which will lead to the greatest uncertainty and change:
Shifting geographies: How will the global economy work in 2025?
Blurring industry boundaries: How will companies organize across sectors in 2025?
Evolving digital behavior: How will the consumer react to Internet ubiquity in 2025?
The interplay of these factors leads to numerous different possible futures. We have selected four combinations which provide thought-provoking and challenging business conditions.
Scenario: Global Bazaar
What happens in an open geopolitical environment where new revenue streams are unlocked by technology? Global Bazaar is a scenario of business transformation and continuous change. However, corporate volatility remains high, which means guaranteeing stable business results is challenging with fluid markets and hyper-competition.
Scenario: Cautious Capitalism
Concerned consumers reclaim their data and turn to privacy-friendly companies. This triggers new competitive dynamics, challenging digital players and reining in opportunities for cross-industry platforms. Cautious Capitalism describes a global and open business landscape challenged by a shift in consumers’ digital behavior.
Scenario: Territorial Dominance
Imagine an international environment, where countries step back towards protectionism. Local industry regulation tightens, big regional companies dominate and entrepreneurship is scattered and marginal. Territorial Dominance describes stagnant economic growth and companies focusing on efficiency gains.
Scenario: Regional Marketplace
In Regional Marketplace the world divides into localized clusters, each following its own rules in trade, business policy, and Internet governance. Governments still drive local innovative environments, fostering native disruptive ventures, but protect regional players from international competition.